Insights  ·  Market Commentary  ·  September 2026  ·  5 minute read

Price Is Not the Scarce
Thing Anymore. Choice Is.

For two years the GTA conversation has been about how much further prices fall. August's numbers point somewhere else. Prices barely moved. What moved was the number of homes you get to choose from.

−14.1%
New listings year over year, a third straight monthly decline
−11.3%
Active listings year over year, down to 24,482
$993,410
Average price, down 2.7% but up slightly from July
The short version
  • Supply is leaving faster than demand. New listings fell 14.1% while sales fell only 2.1%. That gap has now run for three months.
  • The price slide has slowed a lot. The average sale was $993,410, down 2.7% year over year. Twelve months ago the annual declines were far steeper.
  • Buyers still get a discount. Sales are closing at about 97% of the latest asking price and take 51 total days from first listing to sold.
  • But the shelf is emptying. 24,482 active listings, down from 26,098 in July, and the western GTA thinned the most.
  • Detached is close to flat at down 1.8%. Townhouses, down 8.6%, are now the softest segment in the region.
🔍 The Shift

What buyers are actually negotiating over

A buyer's market gives you two things: a better price, and more homes to pick from. Those two things do not always arrive together, and in the GTA they are now separating.

💰

What 2025 gave you

  • Falling prices month after month
  • Record inventory to choose from
  • Sellers negotiating on almost everything
  • Time to think between showings
Both levers, at once
🎯

What August 2026 gives you

  • Prices roughly flat, down 2.7% in a year
  • 11.3% fewer active listings than last year
  • Still about 3% off the asking price
  • Fewer genuine options per search
One lever, weakening

This matters because most buyers are waiting for a signal that never arrives as a headline. There is no announcement when the bottom passes. What you see instead is the thing that happened in August: the discount stops growing while the selection keeps shrinking. If you are holding out for both, you are now betting against yourself on one of them.

📊 The Evidence

Three months of one way traffic

🚫 New listings versus sales

Greater Toronto Area · May to August 2026
05K 10K15K 17,69817,282 14,48412,075 6,5746,770 5,9955,057 MayJune JulyAugust
New listings August new listings Sales
New listings are down roughly 5,600 from the May peak. Some of that is normal August seasonality. The year over year comparison is not: 14.1% fewer homes came to market than in August 2025, and active inventory ended the month at 24,482, down 11.3%. About 42% of the month's new listings sold, which keeps the region in balanced territory rather than buyer territory.

🏠 Where the price pressure landed

Average price change by property type · August 2026 versus August 2025
Townhouse Semi Detached Condo Apartment Detached $786,817 $931,665 $617,593 $1,288,669 −8.6% −5.0% −3.6% −1.8% Smallest decline of any type
Townhouses had the worst month on both measures, with sales down 9.5% and the largest price decline in the region. Condo apartment sales were down 2.6%. Note how much the ranking moved: in July, semi detached led the declines and detached was down 5.0%. Single month readings by property type swing on sales mix, which is why we watch the benchmark alongside them. The MLS Home Price Index Composite was down 4.5% year over year and essentially flat versus July.

🗺️ The GTA is not one market

Average price and year over year change by region · August 2026
Simcoe County Peel Region Halton Region York Region $810,904 $908,415 $1,110,463 $1,179,938 −9.1% −5.4% −4.2% −0.3% Essentially unchanged from last August
Every region was down, but the spread is roughly nine percentage points from top to bottom. York Region is effectively flat year over year. Simcoe County, where the 2021 and 2022 remote work buying was heaviest, is down about $82,000. A regional average is a poor proxy for a neighbourhood, and this month it is a worse one than usual.
✅ What Would Change Our Mind

Three things to watch this fall

We are not calling a bottom. We are saying the shape of the market changed, and here is what would confirm or contradict it.

01

Whether listings come back in September

TRREB's own read is that better conditions could pull sellers off the sidelines. If October brings a listing surge, the tightening story ends quickly and buyers get their choice back.

02

Whether the benchmark stops falling

The HPI Composite is still down 4.5% year over year. Flat month over month is progress. Two or three flat to rising readings in a row would be a genuine turn.

03

What the Bank of Canada does October 28

The Bank held at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh straight hold, and flagged upside inflation risk from tariffs and energy. A hike would reset everything above.

💡 Our honest read: a slow tightening rather than a turn. Supply keeps thinning through the fall, prices grind sideways, and the discount buyers can negotiate shrinks gradually rather than disappearing. That is a market where being ready matters more than being early.
💬 What We Are Telling Clients

Three situations, three answers

🔑

If you are buying

You still get a real discount, about 3% off the latest asking price, and homes sit for 51 total days. Keep negotiating. Just stop assuming next month's shortlist will be longer than this month's. Get your financing settled so a good listing does not pass you while you arrange it.

🏷

If you are selling

You are competing with 14% fewer new listings than last August, the lightest competition in years. That is a reason to list, not a reason to price to 2025. The average is still 2.7% below last year. Price to what closed on your street in August, then let the thin competition do its work.

🏢

If you are moving up

The gap is narrowing again. Detached is down only 1.8% while townhouses are down 8.6% and condos 3.6%. Every month that entry level product falls faster than freehold, the cost of trading up gets bigger. If that move is on your list for 2027, the math is better now than it is likely to be later.

Sources: TRREB Market Watch, August 2026, news release dated September 3, 2026 (sales, new listings, active listings, average price, median price, MLS® HPI Composite, listing and property days on market, property type and regional breakdowns, and commentary from TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld and Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer). Monthly listing and sales series May to July 2026 from the corresponding TRREB Market Watch releases. Sales to new listings ratio and months of inventory calculated from the reported TRREB figures. Bank of Canada policy interest rate announcement, September 2, 2026, and the published schedule for the October 28, 2026 decision. Figures cover all TRREB areas and all home types combined unless noted. Mo is a licensed realtor, not a financial or legal advisor; this is market commentary, not advice on your specific situation.

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