What June's Numbers Tell Us About the Rest of 2026
Every month we read the TRREB release so you do not have to. Most months, the honest summary is "not much changed." June 2026 is not one of those months.
The setup: demand rising into shrinking supply
GTA REALTORS reported 6,770 sales in June, up 9.4% from a year earlier. At the same time, only 17,282 new listings came to market, down 12.9%, and active inventory fell 13.5% to 27,329 homes. The sales to new listings ratio sits near 39%, up meaningfully from last year, and inventory works out to roughly four months of supply.
Prices have not caught up to that shift yet. The average sale price of $1,058,658 is still 3.9% below last June, and the MLS Home Price Index Composite is down 5.4% year over year. But the direction matters more than the level: the annual rate of price decline has been shrinking for months, and on a seasonally adjusted basis both sales and the average price ticked up from May.
Why TRREB is calling it a year of two halves
TRREB's 2026 outlook predicted a slow first half followed by a stronger second half, and so far the script is holding. First half sales edged above the first half of 2025 while new listings came in substantially lower. TRREB president Daniel Steinfeld expects "accelerating transactions and more competition between buyers" through the fall, and chief information officer Jason Mercer notes that if conditions keep tightening, "selling prices could move in line with 2025 and eventually post some increases."
We would add our usual caution: forecasts are forecasts. A weak jobs report or a surprise from the Bank of Canada (the next rate decision is July 15, after holding at 2.25% in June) could slow this down. But the supply side of the argument is hard to dismiss. When 13% fewer homes come to market while 9% more sell, the math tightens whether or not anyone forecasts it.
The segment everyone is sleeping on
The averages hide a split market. Detached homes are down only 2.0% year over year at $1,364,204, while condo apartments are down 9.5% at $630,688. Condos are carrying most of the price correction and most of the inventory, with roughly 8,600 active condo listings across the GTA.
For first time buyers and investors, that is the opportunity in this report. If the broader market firms up in the second half the way TRREB expects, the segment with the deepest discount tends to be where the value gets recognized last, and fastest.
What we are telling our clients
If you are buying: the negotiating leverage you have enjoyed since 2024 is starting to erode. You still get prices about 4% below last year and 29 average days on market to think, but both of those numbers are moving against you. Get pre approved now so you can act before the fall market, not during it.
If you are selling: this is the thinnest competition sellers have seen in years, with new listings down almost 13%. A well prepared, well priced home is meeting real demand again. Overpricing is still the one mistake the market will not forgive, days on market rose to 29 from 26 for a reason.
If you are waiting for a crash: the data keeps refusing to cooperate. Prices drifted down about 4% over a year while sales rose almost 10%. Markets that are about to fall hard do not usually tighten like this. Waiting has a cost too, and right now that cost is rising.
Sources: TRREB Market Watch, June 2026, released July 3, 2026 (sales, listings, prices, HPI, days on market). Bank of Canada policy interest rate announcement, June 10, 2026. Figures cover all TRREB areas and all home types combined unless noted.