Insights  ·  Market Commentary  ·  October 2026  ·  5 minute read

The Sellers Came Back in September.
The Buyers Are Still Waiting.

Every fall the GTA market gets a second wind. This year half of it showed up. Owners listed their homes after the summer lull, but buyers stayed on the sidelines, and the reason has more to do with mortgage rates than with prices.

−9.0%
Sales year over year, 5,040 homes, flat with August
16,500
New listings, up about 4,400 from August but down 14.4% year over year
$1,006,409
Average price, down 5.1% year over year
The short version
  • Supply woke up, demand did not. New listings jumped from 12,075 in August to 16,500 in September. Sales stayed at about 5,000.
  • The usual fall bump in sales never came. September sales normally rise from August. This year they were flat and down 9.0% from last September.
  • Prices are still sliding, slowly. The benchmark was down 4.7% year over year and edged lower from August once seasonally adjusted.
  • Buyers have the edge again. About 5.2 months of inventory and roughly 31% of new listings selling. Two months ago it was 4.6 months.
  • Rates are the real story. Bond yields climbed through September and lenders raised fixed rates. The Bank of Canada decides on October 28.
🔍 The Shift

Why buyers are holding back

TRREB put it plainly: buyers are in a holding pattern, with uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs weighing on decisions. Its Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, said there is substantial pent up demand, but buyers need confidence in their jobs and in where borrowing costs are heading.

🍂

A normal September

  • Sellers return after the summer
  • Buyers return with them
  • Sales rise from August
  • Competition picks up into October
Both sides come back
⏳

September 2026

  • About 4,400 more new listings than August
  • Sales flat at 5,040
  • Fixed mortgage rates moving up
  • A possible rate hike on October 28
Only sellers came back

Here is the part that is easy to miss. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, not the Bank of Canada. The five year Government of Canada bond yield rose from 3.35% on September 1 to 3.60% on October 2, and lenders raised fixed rates with it, even though the Bank held its policy rate at 2.25%. Inflation came in at 3.0% for August. So a buyer who was approved at one rate in the summer may qualify for less house today, at the same price. That, more than prices, is what is keeping people on the fence.

📊 The Evidence

Three charts that tell the story

📋 New listings versus sales

Greater Toronto Area · June to September 2026
05K 10K15K 17,28214,484 12,07516,500 6,7705,995 5,0575,040 JuneJuly AugustSeptember
New listings September new listings Sales
Last month we asked whether listings would come back in September. They did. New listings rose by about 4,400 from August, which ends the three month tightening story we wrote about. They are still 14.4% below last September, so this is a return to normal supply rather than a flood. The change is on the demand side: sales did not move.

🗺️ How much supply each region has

Months of inventory by region, TRREB trend · September 2026
Durham Region Halton Region City of Toronto Peel Region York Region Simcoe County 3.5 4.2 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.8
The lower the number, the tighter the market. Durham is the closest thing to a seller’s market in the GTA, with homes in Ajax, Whitby and Clarington selling at about 99% of asking. Toronto East was tighter still: homes there sold at 101% of asking on average, and 105% or more in the E01 and E02 districts. At the other end, Simcoe County sits near six months of supply, and King and Georgina are higher still. The GTA average hides a seller’s market in some pockets and a clear buyer’s market in others.

🏠 Where prices fell the most

Average price change by property type · September 2026 versus September 2025
Condo Apartment Detached Townhouse Semi Detached $605,257 $1,292,016 $820,637 $1,015,202 −7.7% −5.1% −4.6% −0.2% Essentially flat
Condo apartments took the biggest hit again, and in the 905 condo prices were down 12.0%. Detached, which looked close to flat in August at down 1.8%, slipped to down 5.1%. Semi detached held level, and in the 416 semis were up 2.1%. Single month readings by type swing with what happened to sell, which is why we also watch the benchmark: down 4.7% year over year.
✅ What Would Change Our Mind

Three things to watch this fall

The question is no longer whether supply comes back. It did. The question is whether buyers follow it.

01

The Bank of Canada on October 28

Markets see a hold or a hike as close to even, and the big banks are split. A hold would ease nerves. A hike would push variable rates up and likely keep buyers waiting into the winter.

02

Whether October sales catch up

If buyers were only waiting for selection, they now have it. A clear rise in October sales would say the pent up demand TRREB talks about is real. Another flat month would say rates are the binding constraint.

03

Whether new listings keep coming

With mortgage renewals still rolling through, some owners may list rather than absorb a higher payment. We cover that risk in our new quarterly report, The Mortgage Renewal Cliff.

💡 Our honest read: a buyer’s fall, with a rate caveat. Prices are lower than a year ago and there is more to choose from than in the summer, but the cost of borrowing is moving the wrong way. The buyers who do well this season will be the ones who lock in financing first and negotiate second.
💬 What We Are Telling Clients

Three situations, three answers

🔑

If you are buying

Get a pre approval with a rate hold before October 28. Most hold a rate for 90 to 120 days, and if rates fall most lenders give you the lower one. Then take your time: there are 5.2 months of supply, homes average 51 days from first listing to sale, and sellers are negotiating.

🏷

If you are selling

You are no longer one of a few. September added about 4,400 more new listings than August while sales stayed flat. Price to what actually closed in September on your street, not to spring. Homes that are priced right and presented well from day one are still selling at 98% of asking on average.

🔄

If your mortgage renews soon

Do not just sign the renewal letter. Posted bank rates in September were 5.49% to 6.09%, well above what most well qualified borrowers can get. Most lenders let you lock a rate about 120 days before renewal. Shop it, or ask us for a broker introduction.

Sources: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, news release dated October 6, 2026 (sales, new listings, active listings, average and median price, MLS® HPI Composite, days on market, sale to list price ratios, property type and regional breakdowns, trend months of inventory, posted mortgage rates, and commentary from TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld, Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer and CEO John DiMichele). June to August 2026 listing and sales series from the corresponding TRREB Market Watch releases. Sales to new listings ratio and monthly months of inventory calculated from reported TRREB figures. Bank of Canada policy interest rate announcement, September 2, 2026, and published schedule for October 28, 2026. Five year Government of Canada bond yield movement and bank forecasts as reported by Money.ca and Canadian Mortgage Trends, September and October 2026. Statistics Canada CPI, August 2026, as reported in TRREB Market Watch. Mo is a licensed realtor, not a financial or legal advisor; this is market commentary, not advice on your specific situation.

Want to know what this means for your street?

Durham is tight, Simcoe is soft, and Toronto East is selling over asking. Tell us your neighbourhood and your timeline, and we will show you what September actually did to your plans.

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