Case Study  ·  Buyers  ·  August 2026  ·  5 minute read

Should You Wait for
Prices to Drop?

It is the question we hear more than any other right now. So we stopped guessing and ran it: buy a $1,000,000 GTA home today, or rent for two more years, save hard, and buy in August 2028. The answer is much closer than either side of the argument admits.

$5,172
All in monthly cost to own, against $2,947 to rent
+1.3%
The two year price move where the two paths break even
0.50 pt
A half point rate move is worth about 5% of the price
The short version
  • Waiting has worked for four straight years. The GTA average price peaked at $1,334,544 in February 2022 and sat at $1,008,968 in February 2026, a decline of 24.4%. Anyone who chose to wait in 2022 was right, and we should say so plainly.
  • The break even is a two year price move of about 1.3%. If GTA prices rise more than roughly 0.65% a year from here, buying today wins. If they fall, stay flat, or creep up more slowly than that, waiting wins.
  • Rates matter as much as prices. A half point rise in fixed rates costs you about as much as a 5% rise in price. If rates go from 4.09% to 4.75% while prices stay flat, two years of disciplined saving buys you nothing.
  • The waiting case depends entirely on actually saving the difference. Owning costs $2,225 a month more than renting in our scenario. Save every dollar of that and waiting is competitive. Spend it and waiting is simply two years of rent.
  • The market is tightening while prices are still falling. New listings were down 17.8% year over year in July 2026 and the sales to new listings ratio rose to 37.1%. That is the setup that usually ends a price slide, though it has not ended one yet.
📊 Where The Market Actually Sits

July 2026, the numbers everyone is arguing about

Before the scenario, the facts. This is the most recent full month of TRREB data as of this writing.

Average Price
$1,003,956
Down 4.5% year over year
Sales
5,995
Down 0.9% versus July 2025
New Listings
14,484
Down 17.8% year over year
Sales to New Listings
37.1%
Up from a year ago, conditions tightening
Best 5 Year Fixed
4.09%
High ratio, mid August 2026
Bank of Canada
2.25%
Held for a sixth consecutive decision
Two things are true at once. Prices are still lower than a year ago, and supply is drying up faster than demand is. TRREB's own read is that if this continues, prices could level off in the second half of 2026. That does not mean they will. It does mean the wind that has been at the back of every buyer who waited since 2022 is no longer blowing as hard.
⚖️ The Scenario

Same family, same house, two start dates

A first time buyer household in the 905 with $200,000 saved, looking at a $1,000,000 home, close to the GTA average. Path one buys in August 2026. Path two rents a two bedroom for two more years, saves every dollar of the difference, and buys the same house in August 2028.

🏠

Path one: buy now

$1,000,000, 20% down, 4.09% five year fixed, 25 year amortization
Down payment$200,000
Land transfer tax, after first time buyer rebate$12,475
Legal, title, inspection$3,000
Mortgage payment$4,247 / mo
Property tax and upkeep$925 / mo
All in monthly$5,172
Interest paid over 24 months$63,413
Principal paid over 24 months$38,522
Mortgage owing Aug 2028$761,478
📦

Path two: wait two years

Rents at $2,947, invests the difference at 3%
Starting savings$200,000
Rent paid over 24 months$70,728
Monthly saved versus owning$2,225
Contributions over 24 months$53,407
Interest earned at 3%$13,915
Cash available Aug 2028$267,322
Buys at a price nobody knows yetUnknown
Borrows at a rate nobody knows yetUnknown
Mortgage owing Aug 2028Depends
Notice what the renter is not doing: paying $63,413 in interest and $15,475 in closing costs. That is the honest core of the waiting case. Owning in the GTA today costs about $2,225 a month more than renting the same space, and roughly two thirds of the owner's mortgage payment in the early years is interest, not equity. The renter who banks that gap is not throwing money away, and neither is the owner. They are buying different things.
📈 The Verdict Chart

Where the waiter stands in August 2028

Each bar shows the waiter's mortgage compared with the buyer's remaining balance of $761,478 on the same date. Left of the line means waiting won. Right of it means buying today won.

🎯 The size of the mortgage each path ends up with

Difference in mortgage owed in August 2028, waiter versus buyer
Prices fall 10% Prices fall 5% Prices flat Prices rise 5% $3,430 a month $3,701 a month $3,972 a month $4,243 a month Buying today $115,326 smaller $64,326 smaller $13,326 smaller $37,674 larger Waiter's mortgage in Aug 2028 versus the buyer's remaining balance of $761,478. Monthly figures assume rates hold at 4.09%.
Waiting came out ahead Buying today came out ahead
The crossover sits at a two year price gain of about 1.3%. That is the whole argument, reduced to one number. The waiter arrives in 2028 with $267,322 instead of $200,000, which is worth roughly $67,000 of purchasing power, almost exactly what two years of a 1.3% price gain plus the buyer's principal paydown adds up to. Everything else is a judgment call about which way the GTA moves from here.
💰 The Variable Nobody Controls

What a rate move is worth in price terms

Hold the monthly payment at $4,247 and 20% down, then ask what house that buys at different five year fixed rates. This is the trade nobody puts on a listing sheet.

💰 The same payment, different rates

Purchase price supported by a $4,247 monthly payment, 20% down, 25 year amortization
3.09% 3.59% 4.09% 4.59% 5.09% a point lower half a point lower today half a point higher a point higher $1,110,981 $1,053,326 $950,622 $904,850 $1,000,000 Every half point on the rate moves your buying power by roughly 5%. Calculated on Canadian semi annual compounding.
Today's rate More buying power Less buying power
Here is the uncomfortable version. If you wait two years, prices stay exactly flat, and the five year fixed rate drifts from 4.09% to 4.75%, your monthly payment lands at $4,245. The buyer who moved in 2026 is paying $4,247. Two years of rent, two years of saving $2,225 a month, and you tied. Bond yields, not TRREB, decide that outcome, and nobody on either side of this argument can forecast them.
⚠️ Three Things That Decide It

The assumptions doing all the work

💸

Do you actually save the gap?

The entire waiting case rests on banking $2,225 every month for 24 months without exception. In practice, most households save some of it and spend the rest. Save half and the break even moves against you by roughly $27,000. Save none and you have simply paid $70,728 in rent.

🏠

What are you actually renting?

Our $2,947 is the Toronto two bedroom average. A rented house comparable to the $1,000,000 purchase runs closer to $3,600. At that rent the gap shrinks to $1,572 a month and the break even shifts to a price decline of about 0.3%, meaning prices have to fall for waiting to win.

🔒

Certainty has a value

The buyer knows their payment until 2031 and cannot be renovicted, sold out from under, or told the rent is going up. None of that appears in a spreadsheet, and for a family with school aged children it is often the deciding factor regardless of the math.

🧭 The Honest Split

Which side of this you belong on

⌛

Waiting is defensible if

  • You are genuinely disciplined and will automate the savings on payday, not intend to.
  • Your rent is well below the cost of owning what you want, which in the GTA condo market it usually still is.
  • You are shopping the condo segment, where inventory remains heaviest and negotiating power is strongest.
  • Your job or household situation could change in the next two years and flexibility is worth real money to you.
  • You are not stretched, and could still buy comfortably if rates rose half a point.
🏹

Buying now is defensible if

  • You found the right home and you intend to stay seven years or more, which absorbs both closing costs and a soft patch.
  • You are looking at low rise family housing, where listings are down sharply and choice is thinning.
  • Your rent is close to your ownership cost, which is common once you need three bedrooms.
  • Stability matters more to your household than an extra $30,000 of purchasing power.
  • You can hold the payment comfortably even if your home is worth less in two years, because it might be.
What would change our mind. If new listings keep falling at close to 18% a year while sales hold flat, the sales to new listings ratio climbs out of the thirties and the price decline ends quickly, which would settle this in favour of buying sooner. If instead the mortgage renewal wave pushes a fresh wave of listings onto the market this fall, or the labour market turns, the waiting case gets stronger fast. We are watching new listings, not prices, because supply moves first.

The honest bottom line

This is the closest call we run for clients, and anyone who tells you it is obvious is selling something. On the numbers, waiting two years wins if GTA prices fall, stay flat, or rise less than about 1.3% in total, and buying today wins if they do better than that. That is a coin flip dressed up as a strategy. Which means the decision should not really be made on the price forecast at all. It should be made on how long you plan to stay, how comfortably you can carry the payment, and whether you will genuinely save the difference. Get those three right and either path works. Get them wrong and neither one does.

How we actually help with this

We will run this exact model on your numbers: your rent, your savings rate, your rate hold, the specific segment you are shopping. Then we will show you the price move that has to happen for waiting to be worth it, and you can decide whether you believe it. If the answer is wait, we will tell you to wait and check in with you every quarter. We would rather be your agent in 2028 than talk you into the wrong August.

Figures are illustrative and for education only. The scenario assumes a $1,000,000 purchase in the 905 with 20% down, a 4.09% five year fixed rate, 25 year amortization and Canadian semi annual compounding, producing a payment of $4,247 a month. Land transfer tax uses Ontario's residential rate schedule with the $4,000 first time buyer rebate applied and no municipal land transfer tax, plus $3,000 in legal, title and inspection costs. Ownership carrying costs assume $625 a month in property tax and $300 a month in insurance and upkeep. Rent of $2,947 is the Toronto two bedroom average reported for July 2026 and is held flat across the two years, which understates the renter's cost if rents rise. Savings are compounded monthly at 3%. The waiting scenarios apply the stated price change to the purchase price, recalculate land transfer tax, and assume the full accumulated savings less closing costs go to the down payment. Property appreciation, selling costs and tax treatment of investment returns are excluded on both sides. Actual outcomes depend on your rate, your segment, your savings behaviour and the specific property. This is not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Sources: TRREB Market Watch, July 2026, released August 6, 2026 (trreb.ca); TRREB 2026 Market Outlook and Year in Review; TRREB February 2026 Market Watch for the February 2022 peak comparison; Ratehub and WOWA best five year fixed rate listings, August 18 and 19, 2026; Bank of Canada policy rate decision, held at 2.25%; Rentals.ca National Rent Report, July 2026 data; Ontario Ministry of Finance land transfer tax rates.
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Tell us your rent, your savings, and what you are shopping for. We will show you the exact price move that has to happen for waiting to pay off, and we will tell you honestly if we think it will.

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