Insights  ·  Market Commentary  ·  November 2026  ·  5 minute read

Buyers and Sellers Were Both Waiting in October.
Then the Bank of Canada Moved.

October looked like a pause. Sales and new listings both came in below last year, prices eased by less than in September, and on October 28 the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.50%. Here is how to read it.

−7.9%
Sales year over year, 5,603 homes, up from 5,040 in September
14,173
New listings, down 11.9% year over year and below September
$1,024,108
Average price, down 2.7% year over year
The short version
  • Both sides held back. New listings fell to 14,173 from 16,500 in September. Sales rose to 5,603 from 5,040. Both are below last October.
  • Prices eased by less. The average was down 2.7% year over year, compared with 5.1% in September. The benchmark, which adjusts for the mix of homes sold, was down 4.3%.
  • The balance moved toward the middle. About 4.5 months of inventory and roughly 40% of new listings selling. In September it was 5.2 months and 31%.
  • Rates are the new variable. The Bank of Canada raised its rate by 0.25 points to 2.50%. September inflation was 3.1%, with gasoline up 27.8% from a year ago.
  • Condos stayed softest. Condo apartments were down 5.8% on price, townhouses down 5.0%, and semi detached homes nearly flat at down 0.8%.
🔍 The Shift

Why October looked like a pause

TRREB’s Chief Information Officer, Jason Mercer, described a market where buyers and sellers are both sitting on the sidelines. New listings have fallen by more than sales over the past year, which has given buyers more negotiating power and helped affordability, though activity is still well below where it was coming out of the pandemic.

🍂

September 2026

  • 16,500 new listings
  • Sales at 5,040
  • About 5.2 months of inventory
  • Fixed rates drifting up
Only sellers came back
⏳

October 2026

  • 14,173 new listings
  • Sales up to 5,603
  • About 4.5 months of inventory
  • Bank of Canada hike to 2.50%
Both sides on the sidelines

Here is the part that is easy to miss. Fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields rather than the Bank of Canada, so many lenders had already moved up before the October 28 decision. The hike matters most for variable rate borrowers and for confidence. The Bank said it acted so that high energy prices do not spread into other prices. A buyer who was approved at one rate in the summer may qualify for less house today at the same price, and that, more than the price itself, keeps people on the fence.

📊 The Evidence

Three charts that tell the story

📋 New listings versus sales

Greater Toronto Area · July to October 2026
05K10K15K 14,48412,07516,50014,173 5,9955,0575,0405,603 JulyAugustSeptemberOctober
New listings October new listings Sales
Last month supply came back and demand did not. This month both moved a little. New listings eased by about 2,300 from September, and sales rose by about 560. Both are still below last October, by 11.9% and 7.9%. About 40% of the month’s new listings sold, which is a healthier ratio than September’s 31%.

🗺️ How much supply each region has

Months of inventory by region, TRREB trend · October 2026
Durham RegionHalton RegionCity of TorontoPeel RegionYork RegionSimcoe County 3.64.24.64.95.05.9
The lower the number, the tighter the market. Durham is the closest thing to a seller’s market in the GTA, with about 3.6 months of supply and 40.6% of new listings selling. The City of Toronto and Halton sit near the middle at 4.2 to 4.6 months, while Simcoe County is near six months and homes there sold at 96% of asking. The GTA average hides a tight market in some places and a clear buyer’s market in others.

🏠 Where prices fell the most

Average price change by property type · October 2026 versus October 2025
Condo ApartmentTownhouseDetachedSemi Detached $621,400$804,416$1,310,627$1,024,907 −5.8%−5.0%−3.2% −0.8%Nearly flat
Condo apartments and townhouses fell the most, and in the 905 every home type was lower than a year ago, led by townhouses at down 7.9%. In the City of Toronto, townhouses were up 4.2% and semis up 0.5%. Single month readings by type swing with what happened to sell, which is why we also watch the benchmark: down 4.3% year over year.
✅ What Would Change Our Mind

Three things to watch this winter

The question has shifted from whether supply returns to whether borrowing costs keep rising.

01

The Bank of Canada on December 9

The Bank acted to keep energy driven inflation from spreading. If inflation keeps climbing, more increases are possible and buyers may wait longer. If it eases, the pressure on rates fades.

02

Whether sales hold up in November

TRREB reported that seasonally adjusted sales rose from September. A second month of gains would say buyers are adjusting to higher rates. A fall back would say they are not.

03

Whether renewals push listings up

With mortgage renewals still rolling through, some owners may list rather than absorb a higher payment. We cover that risk in our quarterly report, The Mortgage Renewal Cliff.

💡 Our honest read: a balanced market that still gives buyers room to negotiate, with a rate caveat. Prices are lower than a year ago and there is more to choose from than a year ago, but the cost of borrowing is moving the wrong way. Buyers who do well this winter will lock in financing first and negotiate second.
💬 What We Are Telling Clients

Three situations, three answers

🔑

If you are buying

Get a pre approval with a rate hold before you shop. Most hold a rate for 90 to 120 days, and if rates fall most lenders give you the lower one. Then take your time: there are about 4.5 months of supply, homes average 49 days from first listing to sale, and sellers are still negotiating.

🏷

If you are selling

Fewer listings helps, but fewer buyers hurts. Active listings are down 10.0% and sales are down 7.9%. Price to what actually closed in October on your street, not to spring. Homes that are priced right and presented well from day one are still selling at about 97% of asking on average.

🔄

If your mortgage renews soon

Do not just sign the renewal letter. Posted bank rates are well above what most well qualified borrowers can get. Most lenders let you lock a rate about 120 days before renewal. Shop it, or ask us for a broker introduction.

Sources: TRREB Market Watch, October 2026, news release dated November 4, 2026 (sales, new listings, active listings, average and median price, MLS® HPI Composite, days on market, sale to list price ratio, property type and regional breakdowns, trend months of inventory and sales to new listings ratio, and commentary from TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer). July to September 2026 listing and sales series from the corresponding TRREB Market Watch releases. Monthly sales to new listings ratio and months of inventory calculated from reported TRREB figures. Bank of Canada policy interest rate announcement, October 28, 2026, including September inflation. This is general information, not mortgage or financial advice.

Want to know what this means for your street?

Durham is tight, Simcoe is soft, and the Bank of Canada just changed the math on borrowing. Tell us your neighbourhood and your timeline, and we will show you what October actually did to your plans.

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