The Monthly Mo  ·  October 2026  ·  Vol. 49

September's Numbers,
In Sixty Seconds

The sellers came back after the summer. The buyers mostly did not, and borrowing costs are the reason.

Source: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026 Released: October 6, 2026 Read time: 3 minutes
The Short Version

Three things that mattered in September

📋

Listings came back

New listings jumped to 16,500, about 4,400 more than August. Still 14.4% below last September, so more choice, not a flood.

⏳

Buyers stayed put

Sales held at 5,040, down 9.0% year over year. September sales usually rise from August. This year they did not.

🏠

Condos took the hit

Condo apartments were down 7.7% on price, and 12.0% in the 905. Semi detached held almost flat at down 0.2%.

📊 The Numbers

September 2026 at a glance

Year over year unless noted.

$1,006,409
5.1%
Average sale price
5,040
9.0%
Homes sold
16,500
14.4%
New listings
26,131
9.3%
Active listings
34 days
from 33
Average listing days on market
$860,000
half sold above
Median sale price

📈 GTA average price, month by month

All home types, all TRREB areas · January to September 2026
$1.10M $1.05M $1.00M $950K $1,069,700 $1,006,409 2026 peak JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
What it shows: the average ticked up from August, but do not read it as a turn. TRREB says both the seasonally adjusted average and the MLS Home Price Index benchmark edged lower month over month, and the benchmark was down 4.7% year over year. The uptick mostly reflects which homes happened to sell.

📋 Listings came back. Buyers did not.

New listings versus sales · June to September 2026
05K 10K15K 17,28214,484 12,07516,500 6,7705,995 5,0575,040 JuneJuly AugustSeptember
New listings September new listings Sales
What it shows: sellers returned for the fall, adding about 4,400 more new listings than in August, but sales did not move. Only about 31% of the month’s new listings sold, and months of inventory rose to roughly 5.2. That tilts the GTA toward buyers.

🏠 Where the price pressure landed

Average price change, September 2026 versus September 2025
Condo Apartment Detached Townhouse Semi Detached $605,257 $1,292,016 $820,637 $1,015,202 −7.7% −5.1% −4.6% −0.2% Essentially flat
What it shows: condos were the softest segment, and detached slipped from down 1.8% in August to down 5.1%. Townhouse sales fell the most, down 12.8%. Single month readings by type swing with sales mix, so read them as direction, not precision.
🎯 So What Do You Do

Your move, in four lines

🔑

If you are buying

  • You have more choice and more time. About 5.2 months of supply, and homes take 51 total days from first listing to sold.
  • Lock your rate before you shop. Fixed rates have moved up with bond yields. A pre approval usually holds a rate for 90 to 120 days.
🏷

If you are selling

  • Your competition just grew. About 4,400 more new listings than August, with no matching rise in buyers.
  • Price to September, not to spring. The average is 5.1% below last year. Well priced homes still sell at about 98% of asking.
💰 Rate Watch

Where borrowing costs sit

The Bank of Canada is still at 2.25%, but fixed rates do not wait for it. The five year Government of Canada bond yield rose from 3.35% on September 1 to 3.60% on October 2, and lenders raised fixed rates with it. Inflation was 3.0% in August. Markets see the October 28 decision as close to a coin flip between a hold and a hike.

2.25%
Bank of Canada overnight rate · next decision October 28
~4.34%
Best available 5 year fixed, Ratehub, October 6
~3.40%
Best available 5 year variable, prime minus 1.05%
⏰ Renewing in the next six months? Posted bank rates in September were 5.49% to 6.09%, far above the best market rates, so never just sign the renewal letter. Most lenders let you lock a rate about 120 days ahead. Our new quarterly report, The Mortgage Renewal Cliff, walks through what the 2021 renewals look like at today’s rates.
🔨 October Checklist

Five jobs worth doing this month

💧Shut off outdoor tapsDrain the lines before the first hard frost, not after.
🍂Second gutter cleanOnce the leaves finish dropping, clear them before snow.
💨Change the furnace filterStart the heating season with a fresh one.
🔥Test smoke and CO alarmsDo it when you change the clocks on November 1.
🎃Light the pathCheck porch and walkway lights before Halloween.

Sources: TRREB Market Watch, September 2026, news release dated October 6, 2026 (sales, new listings, active listings, average and median price, MLS® HPI Composite, days on market, sale to list ratio, property type breakdowns, posted mortgage rates, and commentary from TRREB). Monthly price and listing series January to August 2026 from the corresponding TRREB Market Watch releases. Sales to new listings ratio and months of inventory calculated from reported TRREB figures. Bank of Canada policy interest rate announcement, September 2, 2026. Bond yield movement and rate decision odds as reported by Money.ca, October 2026. Best available rates from Ratehub as of October 6, 2026; they are a guide only and not an offer of credit. All market figures cover all TRREB areas and all home types combined unless noted.

What does September mean for your street?

Durham had about 3.5 months of supply this month. Simcoe County had nearly six. Tell us your address and your timeline, and we will send you the real numbers for your block.

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